Second last week of the season upon us and with the top 4 teams going at each other, this one has major playoff implications. Kick back, let’s take you through all the scenarios and walk you through what could happen when all of the dust settles after Sunday. Since we’re in the second last week, we’ll reveal a couple of things you may not have known about each team #stats. For this article, we’ll make our prediction and then post a series of stats. The stats may make us change our opinion, or ignore them all together. We want to see if a subjective approach matches the objective one and whether a couple of data points are enough to change our opinions.

Game 1 – Bucks vs Falcons

So we built up all that hype and this game features the current 5 seed versus the current 7 seed. The fact that you don’t know which is which can you tell you a lot about who should be favoured in this game. The Bucks are this season’s enigma. One week they get beat by 11, the next week they lose by one to that same team, only to follow it with a 10 run win. In a season that has been full of close games, the Bucks are the consistent outlier. Nobody really knows what to expect when they step on the field, and unfortunately for captain Ali Raza Nasser, he’s not too sure what to expect himself. Meanwhile the Falcons sit in last place, they have a reserve, Zane Hussain, that has played in more games than many full time players but they’re only back by 2 points from the Bucks. Their run differential tells a story of a lot of close games and a cursory glance of their past games says they’ve only lost by more than 3 runs once. We think they’re due for a big win.

Bucks Season Team Average: 0.516
Bucks Average against the Falcons: 0.492

Falcons Season Team Average: 0.470
Falcons Average against the Bucks: 0.443

Stats don’t seem to support the story, but that’s why the games are played on the field.

Prediction: 10 – 8 Falcons

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Game 2 – Owls vs Falcons

Captain Kumail Meghani was heard to have said that his team just put up a bad game offensively last week. With just 3 full time players batting above .500 the stats seem to support that narrative. This team should have all the pieces to be really competitive, but it doesn’t seem to be translating onto the field consistently enough. It’s hard to hold a team like this down though, so we expect that they’ll eventually pull through. The down side for them is that their run differential is the worst in the league at a depressing -14. The good news is that most of that came from last week’s loss to the Bucks. Otherwise, most games have been close. With the Falcons on a back to back, we think that the heat gets to them a little bit and they let this game slip away. Owls will come through, but it won’t be easy for them.

Owls Season Team Average: 0.449
Owls Average against the Falcons: 0.424

Falcons Season Team Average: 0.470
Falcons Average against the Owls: 0.432

Another two teams that play well against each other, no clear advantage but we went with the lower average last time and looks like we’re going with that again.

Prediction: 11 – 9 Owls

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Game 3 – Bucks vs Owls

Last game amongst the teams in the bottom of the standings, but make no mistake this is a chance for these teams to propel themselves forward and give themselves the match up they need. While first place may be out of reach, getting a better draw and first round opponent is still likely. The pros in this game for the Owls is that they’ll likely be warmed up, and if we’re right coming off the momentum of a win. The cons are that they’ll be playing a Bucks team that just thrashed them the week before, and will be playing with a lot of confidence against them. While we don’t expect Irfahn Khimji to go a blistering 4 for 4 with 4 RBI in this one, we do expect the Owls to lose. This game is about confidence and the Bucks will come in with a lot of it. We’re going to go against the norm on this – we usually call close games so that we don’t really upset a lot of people, but we’re calling for a blowout in the one.

Owls Season Team Average: 0.449
Owls Average against the Bucks: 0.443

Bucks Season Team Average: 0.516
Bucks Average against the Owls: 0.492

Seriously?! Even with 16 runs they can’t put up an average higher than their team average – who do these guys out perform against??! For a change the stats are on our side.

Prediction 14 – 5 Bucks

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Game 4 – Wolves vs Eagles

With the Eagles sitting in 4th place, 2 points separate them from the Wolves. Meanwhile the Wolves are looking to make a push for 1st place and to give themselves a chance to maintain control of that place in their later game against the Lions. The Eagles are without their two captains – Asad Hussain is injured, but healing well and Ali Manek is going to be at a wedding. Despite his efforts to dissuade people from attending this week and cancelling it entirely, the show must go on. The Eagles will bring a roster that will play with a chip on their shoulder, knowing that nobody expects them to win. That makes them dangerous. The downside is that not even the glare from Riaz Champsi’s freshly shaven head will distract us from the fact that they don’t have their two biggest bats, so unless Hasanain Panju and Imtiyaz Kara come through with huge games, expect the Wolves to take this one easily.

Wolves Season Team Average: 0.478
Wolves Average against the Eagles: 0.269

Eagles Season Team Average: 0.491
Eagles Average against the Wolves: 0.600

Alright so what do we know. Based on the stats, the Eagles severely out perform the Wolves when they play each other. It’s a really big difference…enough to change our opinion. Go Eagles?

Prediction: 7 – 6 Eagles

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Game 5 – Wolves vs Lions

The battle for first place, these two teams are separated by a single point. The Wolves have lost twice against the Lions so far this season. Last week was a low scoring affair with a final score of 5-2. However, the confidence level coming from the Wolves side has not waned – they believe they weren’t beat by the Lions, just that they beat themselves. The Lions efforts were merely just the wrong place wrong time as it were. For the Lions they get back their captain, Miqdad Jaffer, but they may actually be down to a short handed roster, meaning a lot of space in the outfield. Pros are that this means more ABs for Imran Nasser who has been on a tear recently and is batting with a renewed sense of confidence – as if he needed it. While last week was a low scoring one, expect this one to go the opposite direction and some runs to be put up. End of the day, we still have to go with Lions as it appears they’ve owned this match-up to date.

Wolves Season Team Average: 0.478
Wolves Average against the Lions: 0.516

Lions Season Team Average: 0.513

Lions Average against the Wolves: 0.333

We don’t understand the stats anymore – the Lions won twice, but sport a pathetic 0.333 against the Wolves. Maybe the Wolves have cause for their belief that they beat themselves, it certainly looks that way statistically speaking. Alright, we’ll change our minds again on this one. Wolves take this one, and control of first place.

Prediction: 12 – 10 Wolves

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Game 6 – Tigers vs Eagles

In this one, you would expect to have a close game. However, when the team has to ask the question this week “can we play with 7”, you know this one is going to be a bad one. Apparently many of the Eagle players have to make their way elsewhere and they’re leaving their seeding hopes up to 7 players.  Likely they’ll leave 2B open or they’ll have 2 outfielders to cover everything. Neither option is good and either option leaves many giant holes in the field for the Tigers to take advantage of. If the Tigers lose this one, then they don’t really deserve to be in conversation for anything in the playoffs. No pressure…

Tigers Season Team Average: 0.511
Tigers Average against the Eagles: 0.467

Eagles Season Team Average: 0.491
Eagles Average against the Tigers: 0.621

We don’t care what the stats say, yeah it looks like the Eagles usually perform better, but with 7 players on the field, expect this one to get out of hand early.

Edit: Since the time of writing this, we’ve gotten word that Asad Hussain might play this one. That changes things a little bit, but not enough for the Eagles to get the win. He’s still not quite at 100%.

Prediction: 13 – 4 11 – 8 Tigers

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Game 7 – Lions vs Tigers

So the good news for the Lions is that the Tigers are playing on a back-to-back, and based on how few players the Eagles will have, they’ll likely have had a lot of XBH. Also the weather promises to be a humid 30+ degrees outside. Also the Tigers have an average age higher than their team batting average. The Lions get a game off, get to re-hydrate and will come out strong against the Tigers. Last time these two teams faced off, the Tigers made the blunder of listening to Abbasali Kermalli who advised that they intentionally walk Miqdad Jaffer – that means he gets second base. Then an error allowed the runner from 3rd to score easily. Altaf Champsi pitched that one and held the Tigers to a very low number. This one looks like it’ll be close on paper, but because of the scheduling and the weather, we don’t expect the Tigers to have any juice left. Though they can probably borrow some e-juice from the Lions as post trade it seems like more than half of this team now smokes – just make sure you keep it off the field.

Tigers Season Team Average: 0.511
Tigers Average against the Lions: 0.452

Lions Season Team Average: 0.513
Lions Average against the Tigers: 0.333

Stats tell a sad tale, Lions seem to be facing off against two teams this week who have their number. Had the conditions been favourable, it looks like the Tigers probably take this one. I guess those are the breaks, we’re staying with the Lions winning this one.

Prediction: 6 – 5 Lions

Well that was a crazy week. We had thrills – tie games, chills – there was a couple coolers with ice water, and spills – so many rolled ankles. The latter of which has caused us to reach out to the city of Nobleton in a fury of rage that only Nadim Rahemtulla could represent appropriately. They’re agreeing to fix the diamond, but that means we have to find a new home for the next 2 weeks. Enter Grandview Park, and re-enter the home run rule. This week promises to be interesting, so let’s give you a preview of what’s to come. 

Game 1 – Tigers vs Eagles

On the left we have a team that cannot stop winning, and on the right we have the Eagles. The Eagles are without their assistant captain, Asad Hussain, as he recovers from one of those aforementioned spills – we pray for his speedy recovery and hope that he’ll be back to his MVP self in no time. In the meantime, without their best player, this team looks to Ali Manek to carry the load, and while he’s capable of it, the rest of the team is going to need to rally around him. For the Tigers, expect super reserve Khalil Sivjee to make his debut in this one. Tigers take this one easily.

Prediction: 13 – 7 Tigers

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Game 2 – Eagles vs Falcons

The Falcons have been erratic each week with close wins and close losses. They’ve had some attendance issues to deal with, but that plays into their draft strategy as Zane Hussain has seen a lot of time on the field, and that’s a great thing for the Falcons. This coming week for them they’re back on a field in which the field dimensions play into their hands. Expect Umair Ali to have a big game and take a few balls over RF/CF/LF really the whole field is in play for this guy. Eagles will look to counter that approach with home runs of their own as Ali Manek, Hussain Habib and Shane Worthington are all capable. Close one, but we think the Falcons take it.

Prediction: 11 – 9 Falcons

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Game 3 – Falcons vs Tigers

This game will feature a well rested Tigers against a primed Falcons team. This one is should be a slugfest. However, we’re looking to the Tigers to start Altaf Champsi in this one. He’s been pretty effective at eliminating the long ball, but so too has the Falcons Hussein Allidina. The Tigers also look to test their newly formed outfield with Mohammedabbas Walli in RF. He will be tested as this Falcons team hits everywhere. We expect a few home runs in this one, but believe it’ll be a pitchers duel, and against the common rhetoric, we’re taking the Falcons in this one.

Prediction 9 – 8 Falcons

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Game 4 – Lions vs Wolves

The Lions will be shorthanded in this one with Mehboob Ajwani and Miqdad Jaffer expected to miss this game. The Wolves are on a roll right now, but if there’s one thing that gets Imran Nasser ready to play, it’s showing his relatives who gets the premium spot at the family dinners. The last time these two teams faced off, Imran crushed the Wolves’ hopes by turning a double play to end the game. This game promises to be one in which a lot of words will be exchanged, but probably not a lot of runs.

Prediction: 7 – 6 Lions

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Game 5 – Owls vs Lions

Kumail Meghani looks to shrug off a bad week at the plate as his Owls take on the Lions in this one. Kumail’s only memory of a hit was a ball that he popped up to the catcher. The smaller field should be good for what ails him as he and Noor Zia look to make a big impact. On the Lions side of the house, we’re expecting to see a big performance from Moe Abdalla who looks to channel his inner zen master, word is that Moe has been working on his patience and may finally show that potential everyone sees. Owls might just have too many weapons in this one and will come away with the win.

Prediction: 12 – 9 Owls

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Game 6 – Bucks vs Wolves

I think after the beating the Bucks caught in last week’s game, they are looking forward to this matchup. They were playing short handed, and looking to have their full squad with them. Captain Ali Raza Nasser constantly reminds us about how his team is the only prey animal amongst our teams, but in this one they’re looking to show that last week was simply an abnormality. For the Wolves, this is a trap game, one they might look past given their past successes, but captain Imran Virji is pretty good at making something out of nothing (inventor of the bunt triple), so we expect he will rally the troops to show that last week wasn’t an accident.

Prediction: 14 – 8 Wolves

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Game 7 – Bucks vs Owls

Last game of the day features the Bucks and the Owls, they sit separated in the standings by a single point but that run differential for the Bucks is scary. Owls generally bring forward a top heavy part of their lineup and the small field actually plays to the strengths of the Bucks who can limit singles as singles and doubles as doubles. There shouldn’t be many outfield errors that cost them those extra base runners that have plagued them. We are expecting full attendance in this one, and as a result, we believe the difference between these two will actually swap. Bucks take this one with a gritty performance from often overlooked outfielder – Hassan Abbas Kara.

Prediction: 8 – 7 Bucks

Get ready JMS fans, we are now officially passed the start of the season.  These next few weeks will determine who are pretenders and who are contenders.  The notorious slow starters will gain steam, while those who spent too much of the summer warming up will start to fade.  Here is your week three preview!

Game 1: Owls vs Eagles

After a hot start, the Owls have been plummeting.  In trying to figure out the multi-positional defence, it seems that the Owls have forgotten how to hit.  Coming in against the Eagles, however, they have a chance to feast on some struggling pitching with both Riaz Champsi and Abbas Allidina off to a slow start.  This match is going to come down to a battle of the captains with Kumail Meghani and Noor Zia looking to hold their own against Ali Manek and Asad Hussain. After an angry loss last week, this preview thinks Manek and the Eagles are going to come out swinging.

Prediction: 14-12 Eagles

Game 2: Lions vs Owls

This match features the Owls trying to hand the Lions their first loss of the season.  If there’s one thing we’ve learned about Asad Nasser and Kumail Meghani over the years, is that they love to play with a chip on their shoulder and take down the Goliath.  Even though the Lions won both games last week, their bats seem to be starting to cool down. With the way the defence of the Owls is structured, if they can manage to play the entire game and not get walked off, this preview things the Lions get their first loss of the season.

Prediction: 8-7 Owls

Game 3: Eagles vs Lions

In last week’s first encounter between these two teams, the Lions squeaked out a nail biter.  Word has it that Ali Manek took this entire week off so that he could plan his revenge. If there is anything we can anticipate going into this match, it’s that it will be wildly entertaining.  Although some might call this match a coin flip, this preview thinks Miqdad Jaffer will never let Manek bask in the glory of victory.

Prediction: 10-9 Lions

Game 4: Tigers vs Wolves

While the Tigers have found their offensive stroke, the Wolves seem like they won’t be able to hit double digits in runs scored until captain Imran Virji comes back from his injury.  The big hope for the Wolves, however, is that they have Mikael Ratansi on the mound. Ratansi has the third lowest ERA in the league this season while having pitched the third most innings in the league.  As much as we think it won’t be enough to stop the big bats of the Tigers, it definitely will make for a closer game than expected.

Prediction: 9-8 Tigers

Game 5: Falcons vs Wolves

In softball, typically a team can get by if they are missing a key piece.  However, if there is one team that has an MVP upon whom they will be relying on all year, it’s the Falcons relying on Hussein Allidina.  With no clear backup pitcher, the Falcons will need Hussein to be sharp and in attendance throughout the year. Unfortunately for the Wolves, Hussein is expected back, so look for the Falcons to be back in the win column.

Prediction: 11-7 Falcons

Game 6: Bucks vs Tigers

This is the third week in a row that these two teams are facing each other.  The difference in this week is that it will be the Tigers playing their second game of the day, whereas the Bucks will be playing their first.  What throws a wrench into predicting this game is that the Tigers get a break between games, whereas in previous weeks the Bucks were on the second half of a back to back. Now we’re not trying to make excuses for the Bucks. Rather, captain Ali Raza Nasser needs to get more base runners in front of him and Irfahn Khimji in order to actually make their home runs worth the jog beyond the fence.

Prediction: 10-8 Tigers

Game 7: Falcons vs Bucks

We have one more rematch from last week to close out the day.  Whereas last week, the Falcons were short handed allowing the Bucks to take over the game, this week the Bucks are going to be short handed.  Will the Falcons be able to take advantage? It will be the first game of the season for the Bucks reserves, so look out for some rust. This preview thinks the Falcons really want to get back atop the power rankings.

Prediction 11-10 Falcons